We all know what COVID-19 has done all over the world so far.
Its shocking, to see how much damage a pandemic disease did to us in a few month, how much panic it brought and to see how fragile humanity and the systems we made are.
Report: Australia(29/Mar/20): 16 deaths, 3873 positive, majority of cases in NSW(1791)
665,616 positive cases, 30,857 deaths worldwide. Italy deaths surpassed 10,000. Spain had 832 deaths in a single day today.
When I first heard of coronavirus that started in China, I didn’t see it will be this big. But when I read about its infection mechanism, I felt something. It felt like a heavy obnoxious pressure in my chest. My intuition probably felt danger.
COVID-19 doesn’t have high fatality rate compared to a lot of the epidemics that occurred before. The 1918 flu killed almost half a million (estimated) and disappeared by itself in around 2 years. There are viruses with high fatality rates that disappeared by itself by killing the host. But this COVID-19 has low fatality rates, and the transmission is via droplet. which means it will infect more and last longer.
What I understood from Bill Gates previous posts was that we are in the perfect position for COVID-19 to become a pandemic because our transportation nowadays are way more efficient compared to decades ago. If the transportation is efficient, it means faster spread of the disease. Also because current facilities don’t have a lot of medical units to take care of everyone, it’s one of the things that we should be worrying about.
So many countries have been hit. Initially it was China. South Korea was hit pretty bad in the beginning, but it was beccause their examination speed was way faster than other countries, it looked like it was hit bad because of rising confirmed cases after the quick examinations.
It was a remarkable action that Korea took. I can imagine how hard Korean people would have worked to control COVID because a friend of mine who works at the Korean disease control centre stayed up almost 2 weeks developing test kits. What also made recovery faster was the IT infrastructure that Korea had. People received messages on their phones as soon as there were new cases nearby them.
I live in Sydney, Australia. Australians were not looking too much into COVID-19 in January because they were busy with uncontrollable bush fires that never happened so big before. Initially, it didn’t worry me either because the number was less than 50. but at about the second week in March, the numbers start to go beyond hundreds. At about 1000, there was a 2700 passenger cruise with 3 or 4 COVID positive people mixed together, where they let them return to their homes. That started to worry me a lot. I was imagining the hell gate opening in Sydney.
Lockdown and Economy
What I’m more worried about than Coronavirus is the economic aftermath
Coronavirus was already damaging the economy by making people not wanting to go out. When a Lockdown is announced, the businesses must close, therefore businesses can’t make any income, but still has expenses like paying their employees wages, pay rent and etc. So a lot of businesses which doesn’t have backup money will either go in dept or close down.
What does businesses do to survive? reduce the employees. Australia is expected to face 2 million unemployed people until November this year.What does the unemployed people do? try not to use money to survive. If people don’t use money, the economy collapses because theres money going around in the market.
What is the governments action? When there is an economic crisis, the governments try to buffer the economic crisis by giving out more money to the people so that the people feel safe and keep using money. How is the government providing money to the people? as a subsidy to businesses and people. When there is a increase in money going around in the market, it causes an inflation. What inflation does is it reduces the value of cash. To put it simple, your money loses purchase power.
I’ll also share my view on inflation. If inflation occurs, The value of everyones money drops. Some people say that the richer you are, the more impact you’ll get from inflation because rich people have more money. But is that true?
While the value of cash drops, the property values stay the same. Who holds more properties? Rich or Poor? The rich holds more properties. It’s not only properties, anything that is not cash will not be targeted by inflation. Properties, company values, paintings, and etc. So who’s on the advantageous side?
I personally think that COVID-19 will eventually stop spreading by vaccines.
The good news is that there are people who try hard to save the world. Hopefully, they will bring good news.
Even if COVID-19 disappears all of a sudden right now, the economic damage has already been done. It will take years for the economy to restore back to normal.
In 1998, South Korea was hit by an economic crisis. Companies restructured their employees to reduce expenditure. In result, 4 million people ended up being delinquent burrowers(too much dept). Many people started small businesses to survive, which is the reason why there are so many restaurants and cafes in Korea now. I think Australia will go through a similar step except the fact that there are things like Uber or Freelance platforms now which don’t require startup investments to work. There will be a mass influx of freelancers and small businesses after COVID-19 economic crisis. This will be same with other countries where the government tries to buffer economic crisis by pouring more money into the market.
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